In 2023, to speak optimistically about the economy, we must leave Europe (with the exception of Switzerland, which is doing well), and take a retrospective of what has been said about India, China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, overall GDP in the West and the higher growth rate in the previously mentioned countries than in our country. This is the price to pay for having examples of success.

Let's start with India, which has around 1.4 billion people. Fifty years ago, the same people who announced the end of the world due to warming or cooling affirmed that, in India, between one hundred and fifty and two hundred million people were going to die of hunger. Today, in addition to its current demographics, India exports wheat. The problem is that it is a democracy.

China's choice of development, favoring exports, infrastructure development and financial repression, was not possible in India. The Indians are developing in a market system that is rather open to the world, and not at all technocratic like that of Russia. Unlike Singapore's economy for example, India's economy is messy in comparison.

When India wanted to grow, it needed energy. However, India has virtually no own energy resources. So the Indians imported energy, hence a plunge in their trade balance, to the point that it was necessary, at a given moment, to raise interest rates to avoid a monetary crisis, due to the constraint of foreign trade, a law which is verified at a general level.

Today, Indians can buy oil from Russians by paying them with rupees, which is a difference compared to not having enough dollars to pay: with your own currency, you are more independent. India has entered a period where it will free itself from the constraints of foreign trade, having around five hundred billion in foreign exchange reserves.

India probably has the largest stock of gold and silver in the entire world. If we add to this a quality education system, with high-tech skills as well as a good knowledge of English law and the English language, India is likely to become the biggest winner of the strategic upheavals in taking place around the phenomenon of dedollarization.

The Russians will therefore receive a lot of rupees, which they will certainly exchange in the market to cover their fixed costs in Russia, such as rents. They will then find themselves with a surplus of rupees, in the form of foreign exchange reserves. However, these foreign exchange reserves can only be put by the Russians in the Indian bond market, hence the depth and liquidity of the Indian bond market.

The Indians will no longer need to borrow dollars, because the Russians will be able to lend rupees to Indian entrepreneurs who do not have enough. The United States not only lost its monopoly on the dollar, but also created competing bond markets in other countries, which will develop due to oil producers having monetary surpluses.

We are witnessing a splitting of the bond market, and the emergence of a multitude of bond markets. The world is becoming less fragile, freed from dependence on the United States and Europe. India, in addition to its enormous infrastructure needs due to its demographics, is the first obvious and massive winner from the loss of sovereignty over the dollar suffered by the Americans.

What India must work on as a priority is the delay taken by rural populations, who are still under-educated, hence a two-speed economy, with large cities, universities, the emerging bourgeoisie on the one hand, and on the other hand a still backward system in the countryside. India cannot survive without growth and energy. The British heritage had also left internal customs barriers.

These barriers having been lifted by Narendra Modi, collaborations within India will be created, which was inconceivable before. Furthermore, the illiterate population could not have a bank account. To remedy this, a French company went to India and set up a facial recognition system, with which all Indian banks are now equipped.

Diplomatically, what is happening in the enormous arc from Bombay to Sevastopol? First, China organized a truce between the Iranians and the Saudis, so peace is coming to the Middle East, which constitutes hope including for Lebanon. Sevastopol is the military port that allows Russia to monitor Turkey and Syria, which China can now bring together.

However, if Turkey and Syria become closer, the Americans no longer have anything to do in Syria. Moreover, Donald Trump had ordered American troops to leave Syria, but the army had disobeyed. From Syria, we pass to Iraq, then to Iran, on the borders of which are located the most important gas deposits in the world (between Qatar, Iraq and Iran), an immense reservoir of hydrocarbons to be exploited.

After Iran comes Pakistan, after Pakistan comes India. With the help of Russia, this is perhaps the first time that India will have direct access, with pipelines, to energy arriving from the Middle East, which will change everything for India, if only by reducing costs (pipelines being cheaper than boats). Having cheap energy means causing an economic boom.

In parentheses, inflation is not due to the war: it is a monetary phenomenon, also linked to the increase in the cost of energy but unrelated to the war. The sanctions taken by our governments have nothing to do with the war, in the same way that the Dutch tomatoes that we consume, produced in greenhouses in the Netherlands, among other examples, have nothing to do with Ukraine.

What must be remembered is the economic benefit of populations which, for the first time in history, will be peacefully linked. Hence the possibility of Ricardian growth (in reference to the economist David Ricardo, author of the law of comparative advantages), that is to say where everyone does what they do best. Even though global trade is faltering, in the area described it is poised to explode.

After India, we must look at Turkey with interest, because it has always been a dominant power. With the pacification that is coming, there will inevitably be repercussions in Turkey, which already has universities. We also observe a curious phenomenon: despite monetary bankruptcies and inflation, everything happens with gold. Russia, Turkey and Iran have a sort of informal gold standard.

All of this, including around Cyprus, Israel and Egypt, is happening outside Europe. What these countries have in common is that they no longer need us. A large area of ​​development seems to be coming together, and the only slight probability is that the Americans and Europeans will have anything to say about it. But Turkey, at the heart of the zone, is still in NATO in 2023, a development to follow.

This zone may, in fact, decide to break its relations with NATO, especially since the Saudis are now expressing doubts about the interest of the American presence in the Middle East. This same geographical area, multi-faith, with a young population and good universities, will be able to organize itself to benefit from its own resources. The Russians could not cede Sevastopol.

Russia is therefore expected to become one of the main military powers in the region. Already, it has prevented the Americans from bringing down the Assads in Syria. Despite past or ongoing conflicts, the various protagonists concerned are seeing a priority in the prospect of an agreement, even if it means resolving residual problems afterward: they first want to get rid of the United States.

In addition, Russia is opening the northern route to better bypass American bases, which gives ideas to other countries like Korea. We can clearly see the disintegration effect occurring everywhere, with Russia remaining well placed, without limiting its relations to China. Furthermore, China's know-how in terms of infrastructure can be exported, for example with a view to the reconstruction of Iraq.

The Chinese have been able to copy the centers of excellence of different successful sectors of activity around the world (including the Rungis market in France), to then monetize their acquired skills, which requires roads, highways and bus stations in sufficient numbers. After the Covid years, the Chinese economy and its real estate are restarting, Chinese banks are lending again.

We are witnessing a rare confluence between the subcontinent, that is to say India, and southwest Asia, with eastern Asia having already been developed around China, which means that today, when we look at global GDP, the Global South has for the first time a higher GDP than that of the Global West, with significantly faster growth and a shift towards the Indian Ocean.

Mauritius could become one of the financial centers of this zone, also with control over the east coast of Africa, which will also be impacted by these upheavals: to Chinese investments will be added Russian and Indian investments. This region of the world, one of the strongest new poles, is experiencing what Europe experienced in the 1950s.

The heart of American power, the twelve fleets with their aircraft carriers, is called into question. In the event of a rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the American base in Bahrain, which controls the entry and exit of the strait, will be deemed useless, including, ultimately, by the United States. American international trade, heir to British international trade, was carried out above all by sea.

We are also witnessing a reversal of positions within the American political class: the Democrats (favorable to mass media, the pharmaceutical industry lobby and vaccines) want to continue financing a military presence in the world, while the Republicans, notably with their libertarian branch, say that the benefits no longer match the costs generated.

Vladimir Putin would not have invaded Ukraine under Donald Trump, who would have accepted the Russian president's conditions, namely that Ukraine never enter NATO. The war escalation in 2023 stems entirely from the responsibility of the Democrats and their European equivalents (like Emmanuel Macron in France). Wesley Clark, former head of NATO, was himself surprised by certain initiatives.

The purpose of an army is not to crush other countries, but to defend its own country. The only rational aspect of American military hegemony therefore came down to economic and financial interests, due to the military lobby. Giving a hundred billion to Ukraine is in fact giving a hundred billion to the American arms industry, and it is our budget deficit that pays, which is totally criminal.

As a turning point for peace begins in a region of the world previously known for its conflicts, in order to guarantee the success of this enterprise, each country concerned must become strong enough to stop being afraid of the others, and even Lebanon could benefit from it as a financial and tourist center. The question is: will Latin America join this axis or stay with the United States?

Merci de m'appeler Eric, c'est mon prénom d'usage.